Adirondack Lake Science

[DSettahr]

I should've clarified- I was mainly referring to how those isolated lakes/ponds were populated with fish originally. Over the timeframes involved since the ice age, even infinitesimally small chances of a rare occurrence can (and do) add up to a "pretty good" chance of that rare occurrence happening.

I did some quick math, and given 100 potential visits per year to an isolated body of water by a bird traveling from another body of water, each with a one in a million chance of transporting eggs, the odds of it having happened at least once in the 11,700 years since the end of the ice age are 69%. In comparison, just to exemplify just how far outside the realm of easy comprehension 11 millennia is, you could play the lottery 100 times a year for your entire adult life (60 years) with the same odds of winning (one in a million) and your odds of winning at least once over those 60 years are only 0.6%.

(Note that these are completely made up numbers for the sake of argument to show that even very unlikely events are bound to happen over long enough time periods.)

I agree that in given the much shorter timeframe involved with the rise and subsequent fall of acid rain, humans are probably much more likely the culprit.

[montcalm]

Originally Posted by DSettahr

I did some quick math, and given 100 potential visits per year to an isolated body of water by a bird traveling from another body of water, each with a one in a million chance of transporting eggs, the odds of it having happened at least once in the 11,700 years since the end of the ice age are 69%. In comparison, just to exemplify just how far outside the realm of easy comprehension 11 millennia is, you could play the lottery 100 times a year for your entire adult life (60 years) with the same odds of winning (one in a million) and your odds of winning at least once over those 60 years are only 0.6%.

Drake equation applied to fish populations?


But seriously, after looking at that lake data, I was seriously skeptical that many of those lakes/ponds that could have been rendered lifeless by acidification, were. There are a few that definitely were impacted, and probably sterilized, but all those had at least one outlet. I didn't notice any larger bodies of water that were sterilized (and were known to have healthy fish populations), or had a pH anywhere near dangerous.

I'm also still curious about those particular lakes types and why they remain acidic. But perhaps I need to find some more modern data to know.


Regarding the statistics again and the possibility of ONE of those hyrdrolocked ponds getting populated by a stray egg - what are the chances that could have turned to a breeding population and survived something like a freeze over all the years before humans interacted? Or simply running out of oxygen and not having any exit. My common sense hypothesis is still that if fish were there, humans put them there.

[DSettahr]

Originally Posted by montcalm

Drake equation applied to fish populations?

In a nutshell, pretty much. More or less the same argument.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by montcalm

Drake equation applied to fish populations?


But seriously, after looking at that lake data, I was seriously skeptical that many of those lakes/ponds that could have been rendered lifeless by acidification, were. There are a few that definitely were impacted, and probably sterilized, but all those had at least one outlet. I didn't notice any larger bodies of water that were sterilized (and were known to have healthy fish populations), or had a pH anywhere near dangerous.

I'm also still curious about those particular lakes types and why they remain acidic. But perhaps I need to find some more modern data to know.

There are many papers that have been published in regard to acidification and the many variables involved. If I can find them I'll post a link.

Edit: Here are some links. Good reading for those interested in acidification:

http://www2.dnr.cornell.edu/cek7/Pub...%20al_2014.pdf

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5024775 (Adk specific at 3.5)

https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/...b0518e35469517 (more on soil calcium depletion hindering recovery)

https://www.colgate.edu/media/13141/download (quick and worthwhile download)

[montcalm]

Many thanks, Glen. I'll take a look at all these.

[Bunchberry]

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart...ers-180975230/

[montcalm]

I read through a bit of those reports but haven't made it through all.

All related to Honnedaga Lake, which is interesting, but is a cold-water lake with inlets and outlets. It's an interesting study if your interested in fish populations and how acid deposition affected them, but I was more curious about smaller bodies of water and the impact on their biodiversity due to acid precipitation.