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Old 03-18-2021, 12:13 PM   #22
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,675
Originally Posted by DSettahr View Post
I did some quick math, and given 100 potential visits per year to an isolated body of water by a bird traveling from another body of water, each with a one in a million chance of transporting eggs, the odds of it having happened at least once in the 11,700 years since the end of the ice age are 69%. In comparison, just to exemplify just how far outside the realm of easy comprehension 11 millennia is, you could play the lottery 100 times a year for your entire adult life (60 years) with the same odds of winning (one in a million) and your odds of winning at least once over those 60 years are only 0.6%.
Drake equation applied to fish populations?

But seriously, after looking at that lake data, I was seriously skeptical that many of those lakes/ponds that could have been rendered lifeless by acidification, were. There are a few that definitely were impacted, and probably sterilized, but all those had at least one outlet. I didn't notice any larger bodies of water that were sterilized (and were known to have healthy fish populations), or had a pH anywhere near dangerous.

I'm also still curious about those particular lakes types and why they remain acidic. But perhaps I need to find some more modern data to know.

Regarding the statistics again and the possibility of ONE of those hyrdrolocked ponds getting populated by a stray egg - what are the chances that could have turned to a breeding population and survived something like a freeze over all the years before humans interacted? Or simply running out of oxygen and not having any exit. My common sense hypothesis is still that if fish were there, humans put them there.

Last edited by montcalm; 03-18-2021 at 12:26 PM..
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