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Old 03-17-2014, 02:32 PM   #32
cityboy
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Hobbit View Post
No. It hasn't paused.
All of those "15 year pause" calculations use the same starting point of 1998.
1998 was a record high temperature year, due to a strong El Niņo. If you shift just 2 years earlier, so use 1996-2010 instead of 1998-2012, the trend is +0.14 C per decade, so slightly greater than the long-term trend. 15 years isn't really long enough to get any meaningful trend.

Look, I'd love to keep refuting your arguments. I probably will continue to do so. But it makes me wonder, just what kind of evidence would you require to be convinced?

That's not a rhetorical question. I really mean it. What evidence would you have to see in order to be convinced climate change is real?
Most measures of the pause begin in 1997 for the very reason you mention. The "rise" is outside of the confidence bands therefore statistically 0. Even the IPCC acknowledges the pause so you're an exception. Also if there is no pause why all the papers trying to explain it? And that long term trend you mention works out to 1.4 per century well below the 2c level that the IPCC says will be catastrophic.
As for the time period. It is generally acknowledged that the manmade warming phase was roughly 1975 to 2000. That's at most 25 years. It was also stated by top Climatologists that a 15 year pause would be very rare and a cause of concern.

As for your question. My answer is very simple. To change my mind I would need to see temperatures rise to at or above the model predictions. And I would need to see that trend last at least 15 years.

Now what would cause you to change your mind?

Last edited by cityboy; 03-17-2014 at 04:36 PM..
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